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作者: :【嘉豐資本】投資合夥人黃紹麟

傳統出版社的三大功能

賣書的生意還能做多久?會提出這個疑問並不代表著認為(紙本的)書籍會消失,而是認為「出版」這個產業的樣貌會被大大的改變。數位音樂跟隨網際網路發展到現在已經十多年,而音樂CD照樣有人買。因此這並不是誰取代誰的問題,而是誰成為主流的問題。

內容產業重組,無非是「舊中間人被邊緣化,新中間人變成主流」。報社是讀者通向新聞的中間人,現在變成入口網站。唱片公司是樂迷通向音樂的中間人,目前還沒有人能取代他的地位,但音樂的流通管道變成了網際網路(免費)及蘋果iTunes之類的音樂商城(付費)。

以往的出版產業大約可以概分為四種角色:作者,出版社,書店,消費者。其中,出版社擔任的工作是最為關鍵的,沒有出版社在其中謀劃一切,出版這件事情就不會是現在的樣貌。而出版社最重要的功能有三,第一是企劃管理,包含尋找作者與主題,出版前後推廣行銷等。

第二是資金管理,一般人沒錢出書,印刷推廣都要錢,而這個錢是出版社先墊付了。資金管理的功能尤為重要,因為出版社分攤了書籍作者將創作進行商品化的風險,從而使得一般人出書的意願提高而門檻變低,成就了我們今天有這麼多書可看的百家爭鳴時代。

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Building a great business and operating it well no longer guarantees you'll be around in 100 years, or even 20. In 1958, the average length of time a company remained on the S&P 500 was 57 years; by 1983, it had dropped to 30 years; in 2008, it was just 18.

Shorter business life cycles require a new sort of management discipline capable of leading an organization through an ongoing process of transformation and renewal. To thrive in today's marketplace, to be built to last, every business now must be built to transform.

Consider Amazon (AMZN), which emerged from the dot-com bubble one of the few winners and continued to blaze a trail of impressive growth (from about $4 billion in 2002 to nearly $20 billion in 2008). One of the most unexamine facets of Amazon's high-profile success is its unabashed embrace of transformational growth in its white space. Amazon survived the dot-com bust because it had a viable and innovative business model built around a market-changing customer value proposition and a radical profit formula, which upended the staid book industry. Then it quickly expanded beyond books to include all sorts of easily shippable consumer goods, growing from its core into near adjacencies. But Amazon didn't stop there.

A few years later, the company seized its white space when it devised a new value proposition, offering a commission-based brokerage service to buyers and sellers of used books. Then it moved into its white space again by developing a model to serve an entirely different customer: third-party sellers. By opening up its storefront to other retailers that were essentially competitors, Amazon transformed its business from direct sales to a sales-and-service model, aggregating many sellers under one virtual roof and receiving commissions from the other companies' sales.

Then Amazon did it yet again, identifying a new area of potential growth by finding another new customer—the IT community. Serving this new customer's needs required different processes, different resources, and a different profit formula—in short, another new business model. In 2002 Amazon launched a web services platform. Perhaps it was risky for a young company that had only reached profitability in that same year to invest its innovation resources in new business models rather than stick to its core, but within five years the site used by Amazon's web-services platform had grown into the seventh-largest in the world. And Amazon kept going. In late 2007, it set up Lab126, whose first product, the Kindle e-book reader, came to market wrapped in a business model not only foreign to Amazon's DNA but also potentially disruptive to the entire publishing industry.

To launch this high-margin, product-based offering, Amazon had to become an original equipment manufacturer (OEM). It wrapped this technology in a seamlessly integrated iTunes-type digital media platform that combined both transaction- and subscription-based content delivery. It partnered with content producers in innovative ways and created an open back-end that allowed independent publishers to generate new content for the Kindle. In its first year, Amazon sold an estimated 500,000 Kindles. Amazon has greatly expanded the market for e-books and positioned itself for success not only in this market but in newspaper and periodical distribution as well.

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Internet retailer Amazon.com (AMZN) may need to write a new chapter for the Kindle in the face of fierce competition from Apple's iPad.

Since Apple (AAPL) announced on Jan. 27 that it would sell a versatile tablet computer that lets users read electronic books and perform a range of other computing tasks, analysts have said the iPad would likely take a bite out of sales of dedicated e-book readers such as Amazon's popular Kindle. In light of Apple's Apr. 8 announcement that it sold 450,000 iPads in less than a week, Wall Street analysts are already slicing their forecasts for Kindle sales.

Charlie Wolf, a senior analyst at Needham & Co. who has a "buy" rating on Apple shares, on Apr. 9 cut his forecast for Kindle sales this year, settling on a range from 2.5 million to 3 million units, in place of a previous forecast of 3.6 million units. Wolf estimates that Amazon sold 2.2 million Kindles in 2009. "It's not a compelling product," he says of the Kindle, because Apple's iPad offers more features, such as the ability to play video, plus a more compelling design.

Piper Jaffray (PJC) analyst Gene Munster, who has an "overweight" rating on Amazon shares, cut his 2010 forecast for Kindle sales by 400,000 units, to 3.45 million. Amazon's top-of-the-line Kindle DX, which is designed to let users read e-books on a black-and-white screen, is selling for $489, just $10 less than Apple's least-expensive iPad.

The iPad starts at $499 for a model with 16 gigabytes of storage, a color touchscreen, and a library of 60,000 e-books. It also affords users the ability to watch videos, listen to music, and run a wide variety of applications. "No one in their right mind is going to buy a Kindle DX," says Munster.

consumers dumping Kindles for iPads

To keep pace with consumers' heightened expectations about what a tablet-style computer should do, Amazon may need to lower the Kindle's price or introduce such new features as a color screen to make the device more compelling, analysts say.

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